Happy Endings, Doomsday Prophesies and the Perils of Think Tank Simulations

by Rex Brynen

Having recently commented on the dangers of poorly designed crisis simulations, we’re pleased to feature this guest contribution by Natasha Gill of TRACK4: Simulations in Conflict, Negotiation and Mediation. This piece is an excerpt adapted from a forthcoming book by Natasha entitled Integrative Simulations: An Apprenticeship in Conflict, Negotiation and Mediation, (Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich).

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Happy Endings and Doomsday Prophesies: The twin hazards of simulations run in policy centers and think tanks 

Some of the most influential and publicized simulations are run in think tanks and policy centers, due in part to high-level participants and respectable host institutions. Yet many of these modules appear to produce self-fulfilling prophesies rather than facilitating a deeper understanding of a conflict or developing robust policy recommendations.

With crisis-oriented or futuristic scenarios, thin role descriptions that allow participants to draw mostly from their own knowledge-base, and a host of intervening external events that drag the scenario into spirals of urgent decision-making, these war-game type modules miss out on key simulation-opportunities. They often seem to provide evidence for a series of assumptions that are embedded in the very structure of the simulation itself, and thus produce predictable outcomes that confirm rather than challenge the views of participants. Even more problematically, it appears that participants are trusted to accurately represent the characters at the table based on their own knowledge, in the absence of strict role instructions or ‘role reversals’ that challenge them with unfamiliar positions. This is the equivalent of playing chess alone and believing you can inflict on yourself a surprise checkmate.

Crisis Simulations versus Conflict/Negotiation Simulations

Whether or not the time is ‘ripe’ for negotiations in the real world, a negotiation simulation that faithfully reflects the positions of real players and the impasses between parties is likely to produce more profound insights and realistic outcomes than a crisis simulation based on a future scenario or driven by dramatic external events.

A complex simulation structure is most valuable when it relates to a nexus of concepts, interests, concerns, positions and inter- as well as intra-factional tensions, rather than gaming devices relating to impending crises. Interventions such as bombings, assassinations and terrorism, while crucial variables in the real world, are highly problematic when inserted into a futuristic scenario where the context, players or calculus of the leadership are likely to be different. Further, after several such interventions the simulation is catapulted far outside the orbit of reality, and outcomes begin to take on an aspect of the absurd. Participants might learn something about what could occur in one of many possible parallel universes in which each of these events took place in the precise sequence they did in the simulation: they will have gained little insight into the current impasses, position and options of key players or their likely responses to events.

On the contrary, this kind of simulation allows participants to mistake the heart of a crisis with the heart of a conflict. They must make urgent decisions based on critical events rather than delving deeper into the motivations of various players – the psychological, cultural, historical, political and personal baggage they bring to the table. Such scenarios also tend to highlight the divisions between adversaries rather than offering a nuanced view of the internal divisions and pressures that influence the decision-making of key players.

Bringing the Emotions Into the Room

One of the most problematic aspects of crisis games or loosely structured simulations is that they leave a key player outside the room: emotion. As a result, while participants might experience adrenalin-driven emotions – the stress of leadership or challenge of decision-making under crisis – they have the option to sidestep some of the entrenched beliefs, fears and resistances that grip the actual parties.